Forecasting Optimal Chicken Feed Demand: A Case Study of Aun Reun Farm Co., Ltd.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14456/ajmt.2024.3Keywords:
Forecast, Chicken Catching Day, Chicken FeedAbstract
This research aimed to determine the optimal forecasting values for three types of chicken feed and predict the duration of the chicken catching period by applying four forecasting methods: 1) Moving Average, 2) Single Exponential Smoothing, 3) Linear Trend Equations Method, and 4) Quadratic Trend Equations Method. The data analysis in this study was performed using the Minitab 18 software package. The obtained data were tested to identify the most suitable forecasting method based on the following comparison criteria: Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with the lowest values. The findings revealed that the Quadratic Trend Equations Method was the most appropriate forecasting method for feed types 511 and 513, as well as for determining the chicken catching period. This method provided an average accuracy of 98.21% when compared to the actual feed consumption in the 10th batch. However, regarding feed type 510, the Single Exponential Smoothing method was found to be the most suitable, with an accuracy of 92.99% when compared to the actual feed consumption in the 10th batch. Among all the forecasting methods employed in this study, it was observed that the majority of the data with the lowest error values were obtained using the Quadratic Trend Equations Method.
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