The Impact of China's Belt and Road Initiative on the Value Chain Division of Labor Position (GVCP) in Participating Countries

บทคัดย่อ

Background and Aim: This study examines the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the value chain division of labor in participating countries. Through this study, we aim to objectively assess whether the Belt and Road Initiative can promote "inclusive economic growth" and make the division of labor in the value chain more equitable. Additionally, we provide policy recommendations to enhance the effectiveness of the BRI and offer new perspectives and insights for understanding changes in the global economic landscape.

Materials and Methods: This paper primarily uses the DID model and panel regression model as statistical tools. The core of the DID model lies in using two "differences" to estimate the effect of an intervention. In this paper, participation in the co-construction of the Belt and Road Initiative serves as the key policy variable in the DID model. This difference has a significant impact on the degree of value chain participation. Given the relationship between the two and the suitability of the DID model, this paper adopts the DID model as a statistical tool. When estimating the DID model, the panel regression model is employed. This model can more accurately estimate the relationships between variables, control for individual and time-fixed effects, reduce estimation errors, and improve model accuracy. This study obtains panel data from the World Bank database for 45 Belt and Road countries from 2009 to 2022, resulting in a total of 840 samples for analysis.

Results: Through data analysis and interpretation within the framework of the "smile curve," this study finds that the Belt and Road Initiative has a significant positive impact on the value chain position of Central and Eastern European countries, Southwestern and Northern European countries, moderately and less industrialized countries, low-GDP countries. However, it has no significant impact or even a suppressive effect on Southeast Asian countries, highly industrialized countries, middle- and high-GDP countries. This may be because these countries have already occupied high-value positions in the global value chain.

Conclusion: Since China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, this grand vision has not only profoundly reshaped China’s opening-up landscape but also created unprecedented development opportunities for participating countries. Countries that have joined the BRI have generally experienced an improvement in their position within the global value chain. This conclusion is supported by data from multiple dimensions, including increased trade flows, expanded foreign investment inflows, deepened technological cooperation, and enhanced infrastructure connectivity. These changes have not only facilitated the optimization and upgrading of participating countries' industrial structures but also strengthened their integration into the global value chain and increased their influence, promoting a fair advancement of the value chain.