THE UNITED STATES’ RETALIATORY TARIFF POLICY UNDER TRUMP: A GEOECONOMIC INSTRUMENT FOR RESHAPING THE NEW WORLD ORDER AND ITS IMPACT ON THAILAND AND ASEAN

Abstract

This article examined the United States’ retaliatory tariff policy under President Donald Trump as a geoeconomic instrument for reshaping the global order in the post–Cold War era. Integrating theoretical perspectives from political science, political economy and international relations, it draws on realism, geoeconomics, and liberal international order theory to explain the strategic logic behind U.S. tariff which served not merely economic ends but sought to constrain the influence of rivals in the world system. The study conducted a comparative analysis of the policy’s impacts on Thailand and nine other ASEAN member countries. It investigated structural effects across export-oriented industries, supply chains, and each country’s policy responses. The analysis was followed by a systematic policy framework, offering four key strategic recommendations for Thailand: proactive trade diplomacy, market and production diversification, value chain upgrading, and regional alliance building. The article argued that Thailand should move from being a follower to becoming a strategy-setting actor capable of absorbing great-power shocks and maintaining balance within a rapidly changing global order.