DEMAND FORECASTING FOR RAW MATERIALS TO REDUCE THE LOST SALES OPPORTUNITY., A CASE STUDY FOR A PIZZA HUK T&J SHOP

Abstract

The objectives of this research were 1) to find an appropriate forecasting model; 2) to reduce the cost of losing sales opportunities and 3) to find a reorder point of raw materials that are suitable for the customer's needs. Case study of Pizza HUK T&J which has a problem of managing raw materials that are too much in reserve that cause spoilage or if the purchase of raw materials is not enough, it will cause a shortage of raw materials that are inconsistent with customer needs. This is a detrimental effect on reduced customer satisfaction and results in wasted costs. The researchers forecast the demand for pizza for all 7 menus and the sample group for this research is 13 pizza ingredients using a simple moving average method, weighted moving average. and how to find exponential smoothing. This study has shown that the Weighted Moving Average forecasting method is the a suitable method that produces accuracy results that are close to true with the lowest error (MAD) value. And all the raw materials were grouped according to importance by ABC Analysis method and then calculate the appropriate reorder point of Group A raw materials within the store under the variable inventory demand rate and constant cycle time conditions Service level value Z=90%. The result was a reorder point (ROP) of 73 boxes of instant dough, 68 pineapples and 43 bags of cheese, which the study said could reduce costs even more. The shop can order raw materials more accurately. The result of comparing raw materials by forecasting group A raw materials, namely instant flour, pineapple and cheese, can help the shop to reduce the problem of losing sales opportunities by 8,762 baht per month, resulting in more profits from the shop.