Forecasting the Rubber Export from Thailand to Yunnan Province after the Opening of the China-Laos Railway

Abstract

The purposes of this research were 1) to analyze the major factors affecting rubber exports from Thailand to Yunnan Province and 2) to forecast the volume of rubber exports from Thailand to Yunnan Province on railway. This research is a quantitative method research. The data used in the research is quarterly time series data from 2013 to 2022. The data was collected from government office and the Global Trade Atlas databases, totaling 40 quarters. The data is evaluated using multiple linear regression along with government officer’s comments. According to the research findings, 1) Yunnan Province real GDP per capita, rival nations rubber price, Thai rubber price, and Yunnan Province population predict changes in rubber export volumes from Thailand to Yunnan with coefficients of 1.555, 0.674, -0.392 and 0.236, respectively, with statistically significance level of 0.05. It is except for the exchange rate. They together forecast variation in forecast of rubber export volumes from Thailand to Yunnan Province by 74.30 percent. 2) After the Thai-China high-speed railway is built to connect China-Laos high-speed railway, the volume of rubber exports will increase by 60 percent, with a value of around US$62 million in 2027. The research can be used to appropriately plan the production and export volumes of rubber in the country.