Eonomic Factors Affecting Value-Added Tax Revenue of Regional Revenue Office 5 in Thailand DOI:

Abstract

          This study aims to analyze the economic factors that affect value-added tax (VAT) revenue collected by the Regional Revenue Office 5, in order to accurately forecast tax revenues in line with government spending plans. The study uses secondary monthly data from October 2013 to October 2024, totaling 132 months. The analysis employs the Simultaneous Equations Methods using the Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS) estimation technique. The findings reveal that the economic factors significantly affecting import VAT revenue at the 0.10 statistical significance level include the Industrial Production Index, Import Price Index, Exchange Rate, COVID-19, relief measures by the central bank, and Crude Oil Prices. For other case VAT revenue, the economic factors found to have a statistically significant impact at the 0.10 level include Population, Business Confidence Index, and relief measures by the central bank. Based on these findings, the government can utilize this information to formulate policies that promote high-potential industrial sectors, support the importation of essential or high-potential goods, and implement policies that encourage population growth in order to expand the tax base in the long term.