A Sales Forecasting Model Based on Econometric Approach: A Case of Pneumatic Parts for Pneumax Company Limited Chonburi Branch

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ปิยธิดา หฤทัยปรีดากุล

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to determine the econometric models for sales forecast of pneumatic part for Pneumax Company Limited Chonburi Branch. The demand for part is analyzed using time series data collected from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2017, totally 44 quarters, and estimated by three-stage least squares (3SLS) method. The simultaneous equation system, which comprises models of demand for parts, demand for tires as well as domestic and export demands for cars, is specified in order to demonstrate the linkage among each other and show the relationships between the economic factors that both directly and indirectly affect the sales volume.


            The research was found that the econometric models proposed in this study can be an alternative is applied for the forecast of demand for other goods and products as well. According to the empirical study, the results at the statistical significance level of .05, show that factors affecting the sales volume of pneumatic part PCD245-NB-100SP are price of part and demand for tires which is significantly affected by Thailand’s gross domestic product including domestic and export demand for car. In addition, factors affecting domestic demand for car are crude oil price and Thailand’s gross domestic product. Moreover, world gross domestic product index, export price of car and crude oil price can significantly explain the export demand for car. The estimated models can be applied to forecast the sales volume of PCD245NB-100SP and predicts that the sales volume gradually decreases. The forecast result can be used as data for order planning and storage of parts in order for the effective management.

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บทความวิจัย (Research article)

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