A Sales Forecasting Model Based on Econometric Approach: A Case of Pneumatic Parts for Pneumax Company Limited Chonburi Branch
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The purpose of this research was to determine the econometric models for sales forecast of pneumatic part for Pneumax Company Limited Chonburi Branch. The demand for part is analyzed using time series data collected from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2017, totally 44 quarters, and estimated by three-stage least squares (3SLS) method. The simultaneous equation system, which comprises models of demand for parts, demand for tires as well as domestic and export demands for cars, is specified in order to demonstrate the linkage among each other and show the relationships between the economic factors that both directly and indirectly affect the sales volume.
The research was found that the econometric models proposed in this study can be an alternative is applied for the forecast of demand for other goods and products as well. According to the empirical study, the results at the statistical significance level of .05, show that factors affecting the sales volume of pneumatic part PCD245-NB-100SP are price of part and demand for tires which is significantly affected by Thailand’s gross domestic product including domestic and export demand for car. In addition, factors affecting domestic demand for car are crude oil price and Thailand’s gross domestic product. Moreover, world gross domestic product index, export price of car and crude oil price can significantly explain the export demand for car. The estimated models can be applied to forecast the sales volume of PCD245NB-100SP and predicts that the sales volume gradually decreases. The forecast result can be used as data for order planning and storage of parts in order for the effective management.
Article Details
References
Areepom, A. & Pattanarangsun, P. (2017). Modelling Tourism Demand for Koh Lan as Early Economic Warning. Journal of Business, Economics and Communications, 12(1), 73-88.
Bank of Thailand. (2018). Historical Foreign Exchange Rates. Retrieved on May 2019, from : https://www.bot.or.th/english/_layouts/application/exchangerate/exchangerateago.aspx
Bank of Thailand. (2018). Key Economic Indicators. Retrieved on May 2019, from : https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/Indicators/Pages/default.aspx
Dwivedi, D.N. (2015). Macroeconomics (Fourth Edition). India: McGraw Hill Education.
Greene, W.H. (2003). Econometric Analysis (5th ed.). Australia: Printice Hall.
Hemeimat, R. & Al-Qatawneh, L. & Arafeh, M. & Masoud, S. (2016). Forecasting Spare Parts Demand Using Statistical Analysis. American Journal of Operations Research, 6(2), 113-120.
Islam, R. & Ghani, A.B. & Kusuma, B. & Hong, E.T. (2016). An Analysis of Factors that Affecting the Number of Car Sales in Malaysia. International Review of Management and Marketing, 6(4), 872-882
Kasornbua, T. (2015). Determinants of Export for Automotive Industry and Forcasting. Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 4(8), 53-56.
Ministry of Industry. (2017). Economic Conditions and Trends in the Industry from January 2561 and 1st Quarter of 2561. Retrieved on May 2019, from : https://www.southdeepoutlook.com.
National Statistical Office. (2017). Manufacturing, May 10, 2019, Website: http://service.nso.go.th.
Ruekkasaem, L. (2015). Demand Forecasting for Production Planning : A Case Study of Cleanroom Apparel. Journal of Parichart Thaksin University, 28(3), 290-304.
The Federation of Thai Industries. (2018) Car Industries Statistic. May 10, 2019, Website: https://www.fti.or.th/2016/thai/ftitechnicalsub.aspx?sub_id=23
Udomtanateera, K. (2018). Literature Review Frederick W. Taylor Principle of Scientific Management. Retrieved on May 2019, from : https://www.iok2u.com/index.php/article/innovation/262-frederick-w-taylor-principle-of-scientific-management.
Warasinchai, K. (2015). Factors Affecting Steel Bar Price in Thailand. Journal of Economics and Management Strategy, 2(1), 29-38.
Watchakama, W. (2014). Analysis of Factors Affecting the Price of Crude Oil and Import Demand of Crude Oil. (Unpublished master’s Independent study). Kasetsart University, Chonburi, Thailand.
Wilson, J.H. & Keating, B. (2007). Business Forecasting with Accompanying Excel-Based ForecastXth Software (5th ed.). Singapore : The McGraw-Hill.