The Dynamics of Poverty Transitions in Indonesia: A Multilevel Analysis of Household Entry Into and Exit From Poverty
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Abstract
Indonesia’s aggregate poverty rate masks substantial household-level mobility. This study investigates the determinants of entry into and exit from poverty using panel data from the National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS) 2022–2024. Multilevel binary logistic regression is applied to model transition probabilities across 34 provinces. Results show that education level and employment sector are the strongest household-level predictors: higher-educated heads working in services or manufacturing face a lower risk of entering poverty and greater prospects of exiting poverty. Provincial economic capacity and income inequality independently shape transition outcomes, with an intraclass correlation of 0.313 indicating that nearly one-third of the variation in entry risk is attributable to intraclass effects. Age effects are non-linear, with entry risk following a U-shaped curve minimized around age 51 and exit likelihood peaking near age 37, suggesting that poverty programs benefit from differentiation across life-cycle stages. Findings reflect associations from an observational design and should not be interpreted causally. The evidence points to the need for anticipatory social protection targeting near-poor households and sustained investment in secondary and vocational education as structural pathways out of poverty.
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References
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