Rural Migration in Korea: Patterns and Implications Under Rapid Fertility Decline

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Published: Apr 3, 2026
Keywords:
Age-group analysis Population forecasting Rural migration rates Tobit model

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Seong Cheon Choi
Korea Rural Economic Institute, Republic of Korea
Tongjoo Suh
Department of Food and Resource Economics, Pusan National University, Republic of Korea

Abstract

Studies on South Korea’s population have primarily relied on aggregate data or focused exclusively on urban areas. However, rural population dynamics differ significantly from national trends, making it challenging to apply national population projections directly to rural and agricultural populations. This study estimates the in-migration and out-migration rates of rural areas using municipality-level statistical data from 2012 to 2022 and forecasts regional net migration rates. The population is categorized by gender and age group, and in-migration and out-migration rates are estimated for each cohort. Given that regional migration rates are non-negative, the Tobit model is employed for the estimation. The analysis reveals heterogeneity in migration behaviors across different demographic groups. In particular, young adults in their twenties exhibit the highest out-migration rates, mainly due to limited access to higher education and employment opportunities in rural areas. In contrast, for individuals in their thirties and early forties, the availability of childcare and family-supportive environments plays a significant role in migration decisions. These findings highlight the need for differentiated policy strategies tailored to the specific needs of each age group. This study enhances understanding of rural population dynamics and provides evidence to inform the formulation of regional revitalization policies.

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How to Cite
Choi, S. C., & Suh, T. (2026). Rural Migration in Korea: Patterns and Implications Under Rapid Fertility Decline. Journal of Population and Social Studies [JPSS], 35(-), 157–176. retrieved from https://so03.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/jpss/article/view/292703
Issue
Vol. 35 (2027): January - December 2027 (In progress)
Section
Research Articles
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Author Biography

Tongjoo Suh, Department of Food and Resource Economics, Pusan National University, Republic of Korea

Corresponding author

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