Time Series Analysis of Demographic Parameters in Bangladesh
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Abstract
Demographic parameters focus on the overall health status of a country. These are necessary indicators for analyzing the health status of the sustained population in Bangladesh. Econometric models fitted on six important demographic parameters separately, three of six parameters for mortality measures and the remaining for fertility measures of Bangladesh. Autoregressive models developed on the time series data of demographic parameters such as life expectancies at birth for male and female populations, crude death rates, crude birth rates, gross reproduction rates, and net reproduction rates by year from 1980 to 2015 collected from Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh published by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Mortality and fertility measures were predicted up to 2030 using the fitted models. The crude death rates, crude birth rates, gross reproduction rates, and net reproduction rates decreased by years from 2016 to 2030, while life expectancies at birth for the male and female populations were increasing. Government and non-government organizations and policymakers can make several decisions for more development of the sectors such as health, education, planning of food supply, and housing. Government and insurance companies in Bangladesh can also utilize the results of life expectancies at birth for the male and female population in setting the retirement age of government employees, fixing the minimum age of old age allowance, and innovating age-related rules of life insurance companies.
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