Forecasting the Length of Grandparenthood With Limited Information Resources: Evidence From Russia

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Oksana Shubat
Anna Bagirova


The study aims to develop and implement methodological approaches for forecasting the length of grandparenthood with limited information resources. Such approaches are in demand in many countries with poor statistics about grandparenthood. The authors use methods of mathematical modeling and trend extrapolation based on time series analysis. Data from official Russian statistics and the statistical databases of the world’s leading institutes of demography are used as the information base. According to forecasts, the length of grandparenthood in Russia will increase in 2021–2025. The predicted growth rate of length of grandparenthood among men is higher than among women. The obtained results develop the methodology of demographic forecasting and contribute to developing the demography of grandparenthood. Moreover, considering the benefits that families receive from intergenerational interaction, the forecast of the length of grandparenthood is vital for understanding the society’s prospects of obtaining social, economic, and demographic effects directly related to active intrafamily interaction between grandparents and grandchildren.


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Anna Bagirova, Ural Federal University, Russia

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