Fertility Decline in Egypt: From Overpopulation Fears to Below-Replacement Fertility and Policy Challenges
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Abstract
Although Egypt’s fertility rate has rapidly declined since 1950, fears of overpopulation are mounting in media outlets and government agendas. This paper argues that these fears are exaggerated and unjustifiable and could pose demographic & development challenges for Egypt. Therefore, the paper aims to statistically examine the projected fertility rates in Egypt until 2100. According to United Nations data, three significant results have been reached. First, Egypt is projected to go below the replacement fertility of 2.32 by 2045 and the replacement fertility of 2.11 by 2058. According to the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) data, these dates are projected to be 13 to 21 years earlier, in 2032 and 2037, respectively. Second, by 2100, Egypt’s fertility rate will go as low as 1.85 (United Nations data) and only 1.59 (JRC data). Third, by 2100, Egypt will almost have the same fertility level as France, Germany, Japan, and Italy, all currently suffering acute demographic problems. These results demonstrate that fertility rates in Egypt are projected to continue declining; thus, fears of overpopulation are exaggerated and unjustifiable. However, Egyptian governments since 1976 viewed the fertility level as “Too High.” This situation could be inappropriate for Egypt and pose many demographic and development challenges.
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