Forecasting the Election Results by Applying Pavia's Method

Abstract

This research aims to forecast the election results by applying Pavia’s method. In this paper, the information of opinion toward general election, which is reflected as one of behavioural science is applied, including using applied statistics to forecast the election results before announcing the election results. The process of data collection about people opinion was proceeded by survey related to election issues. In this survey, the sample was 3,600 electorates in the general election on 24th March 2019 from 30 electoral zones in Bangkok and the questionnaire about opinion of the general election was used as the tool for data collection. The applied statistics methods in this survey are percentage, Pavia’s method analysis (Mean Absolute Percent Error: MAPE). The poll revealed that five parties received major scores, 22.69% for Pheu Thai, 21.94% for Democrat, 20.39% for Palang Pracharath and 16.69% for Future Forward Party. In terms of analysis by using Pavia’s Method, the poll showed different results, 23.96% for Palang Pracharath, 22.45% for Future Forward Party, 21.25% for Pheu Thai Party and 19.12% for Democrat Party. When the poll results by using Pavia’s method was compared with actual election, the percent of accuracy indicated at 82.28% or 17.12% of error.