Sociodemographic and Contextual Determinants of Men’s Fertility Desires in Northern Nigeria: An Analysis of the 2018 Demographic and Health Survey
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
Nigeria has a high fertility rate, averaging 5.1 children per woman. The desire for large families, especially by men from the northern region, is a crucial driver of the country’s high total fertility rate. There is, however, a shortage of evidence on the sociodemographic determinants of men’s fertility desires despite being essential stakeholders in fertility decisions in the family. This study, therefore, estimates men’s desired family sizes and the sociodemographic and contextual factors influencing their desires in the northern region of Nigeria. Data from the men’s recoded 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey dataset were used with a sample of 7,822 men. The chi-square test and ordinal logistic regression analysis were used to test the association and estimate the relationship between the outcome and predictor variables. The findings revealed that 71% of men desired to have at least six children, which was high irrespective of sociodemographic characteristics. However, the desire for six or more children was lower (65%) among the youngest cohort than among the oldest (80%). Being a Muslim (AOR = 4.50, 95% CI [3.86, 5.24], p < .05), having two or more wives (AOR = 2.41, 95% CI [1.68, 3.45], p < .05), having 3–5 (AOR = 2.28, 95% CI [1.89, 2.76], p < .05) and six or more (AOR = 6.03, 95% CI [4.48, 8.13], p < .05) living children, and living in the northeast (AOR = 2.03, 95% CI [1.75, 2.37], p < .05) and northwest (AOR = 1.44, 95% CI [1.20, 1.72], p < .05) zones were the most significant predictors of high fertility desire by men. Policymakers should target these categories of men in fertility and family planning programs to promote lowering and slowing the rate of fertility and population growth.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
References
• Abbani, A. Y., & Usman, M. G. (2023). Factors associated with men’s fertility intentions and family planning practice in Kebbi State, North-Western Nigeria. Ife Social Sciences Review, 31(1), 67–82. https://issr.oauife.edu.ng/index.php/issr/article/view/203
• Adhikari, R. (2010). Demographic, socio-economic, and cultural factors affecting fertility differentials in Nepal. BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth, 10, Article 19. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2393-10-19
• Ahinkorah, B. O., Seidu, A. A., Armah-Ansah, E. K., Budu, E., Ameyaw, E. K., Agbaglo, E., & Yaya, S. (2020). Drivers of desire for more children among childbearing women in sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for fertility control. BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth, 20(1), Article 778. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12884-020-03470-1
• Ahinkorah, B. O., Seidu, A. A., Budu, E., Agbaglo, E., Adu, C., Dickson, K. S., Ameyaw, E. K., Hagan, J. E. J., & Schack, T. (2021). Which factors predict fertility intentions of married men and women? Results from the 2012 Niger Demographic and Health Survey. PLOS ONE, 16(6), Article e0252281. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252281
• Akinyemi, J. O., & Odimegwu, C. O. (2021). Social contexts of fertility desire among non-childbearing young men and women aged 15-24 years in Nigeria. Reproductive Health, 18(1), Article 186. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12978-021-01237-1
• Angeles, L. (2010). Demographic transitions: Analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility. Journal of Population Economics, 23(1), 99–120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-009-0255-6
• Atake, E. H., & Gnakou, A. P. (2019). Women’s empowerment and fertility preferences in high fertility countries in sub-Saharan Africa. BMC Women’s Health, 19(1), Article 54. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12905-019-0747-9
• Bankole, A. (1995). Desired fertility and fertility behavior among the Yoruba of Nigeria: A study of couple preferences and subsequent fertility. Population Studies, 49(2), 317–328. https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472031000148536
• Baynes, C., Yegon, E., Lusiola, G., Achola, J., & Kahando, R. (2021). Post-abortion fertility desires, contraceptive uptake, and unmet need for family planning: Voices of post-abortion care clients in Tanzania. Journal of Biosocial Science, 53(6), 908–923. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021932020000607
• Bongaarts, J. (2003). Completing the fertility transition in the developing world: The role of educational differences and fertility preferences. Population Studies, 57(3), 321–335. https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472032000137835
• Bongaarts, J., & Casterline, J. (2013). Fertility transition: Is sub-Saharan Africa different? Population and Development Review, 38(S1), 153–168. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00557.x
• Bongaarts, J., & Hodgson, D. (2022). Fertility Transition in the Developing World. Springer Nature.
• Canning, D. J., Jobanputra, R. S., & Yazbeck, A. S. (2015). Africa’s demographic transition: Dividend or disaster? Africa Development Forum Washington, D.C.; World Bank Group. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0489-2
• Casterline, J. B. (2017). Prospects for fertility decline in Africa. Population and Development Review, 43, 3–18. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26622871
• Casterline, J. B., & Agyei-Mensah, S. (2017). Fertility desires and the course of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review, 43, 84–111. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26622875
• Church, A. C., Ibitoye, M., Chettri, S., & Casterline, J. B. (2023). Traditional supports and contemporary disrupters of high fertility desires in sub-Saharan Africa: A scoping review. Reproductive Health, 20(1), Article 86. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12978-023-01627-7
• Cleland, J. (2009). Education and future fertility trends, with special reference to mid-transitional countries. In United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and Population (Ed.), Completing the Fertility Transition (pp. 187–202). United Nations. https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/17865
• Cleland, J., Machiyama, K., & Casterline, J. B. (2020). Fertility preferences and subsequent childbearing in Africa and Asia: A synthesis of evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 populations. Population Studies, 74(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2019.1672880
• Cleland, J., & Wilson, C. (1987). Demand theories of the fertility transition: An iconoclastic view. Population Studies, 41(1), 5–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472031000142516
• Götmark, F., & Andersson, M. (2020). Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs. BMC Public Health, 20(1), Article 265. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-8331-7
• Hasna, F. (2003). Islam, social traditions, and family planning. Social Policy & Administration, 37(2), 181–197. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9515.00333
• Heaton, T. B. (2011). Does religion influence fertility in developing countries? Population Research and Policy Review, 30(3), 449–465. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-010-9196-8
• Isiugo-Abanihe, U. C. (1994). Reproductive motivation and family-size preferences among Nigerian men. Studies in Family Planning, 25(3), 149–161. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7940620/
• Isiugo-Abanihe, U. C. (2003). Male role and responsibility in fertility and reproductive health in Nigeria. Center for Population Activities and Education for Development.
• Izugbara, C. O., & Ezeh, A. C. (2010). Women and high fertility in Islamic northern Nigeria. Studies in Family Planning, 41(3), 193–204. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4465.2010.00243.x
• Izugbara, C., Ezeh, A. C., Ibisomi, L., & Mberu, B. (2009). Change and continuity in reproductive norms and behaviour: A northern Nigeria study. African Population and Health Research Centre.
• Kahansim, M. L., Hadejia, I. S., & Sambo, M. N. (2013). A comparative study of factors influencing decisions on desired family size among married men and women in Bokkos, a rural local government area in Plateau State. African Journal of Reproductive Health, 17(1), 149–157. https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ajrh/article/view/86442
• Kebede, E., Striessnig, E., & Goujon, A. (2022). The relative importance of women’s education on fertility desires in sub-Saharan Africa: A multilevel analysis. Population Studies, 76(1), 137–156. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.1892170
• Kırdar, M. G., Dayıoğlu, M., & Koç, İ. (2018). The effects of compulsory schooling laws on teenage marriage and births in Turkey. Journal of Human Capital, 12(4), 640–668. https://doi.org/10.1086/700076
• Kodzi, I., Johnson, D., & Casterline, J. (2010). Examining the predictive value of fertility preferences among Ghanaian women. Demographic Research, 22(30), 965–984. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.30
• Lehrer, E. L. (2004). Religion as a determinant of economic and demographic behavior in the United States. Population and Development Review, 30(4), 707–726. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.00038.x
• Matovu, J. K. B., Makumbi, F., Wanyenze, R. K., & Serwadda, D. (2017). Determinants of fertility desire among married or cohabiting individuals in Rakai, Uganda: A cross-sectional study. Reproductive Health, 14(1), Article 2. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12978-016-0272-3
• Mbacké, C. (2017). The persistence of high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa: A comment. Population and Development Review, 43(S1), 330–337. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12052
• Mberu, B. U., & Reed, H. E. (2014). Understanding subgroup fertility differentials in Nigeria. Population Review, 53(2), 23–46. https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2014.0006
• Miro, C. A., & Potter, J. E. (1980). Population Policy. Frances Pinter
• Monstad, K., Propper, C., & Salvanes, K. G. (2008). Education and fertility: Evidence from a natural experiment. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 110(4), 827–852. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2008.00563.x
• Muluneh, M. W., & Moyehodie, Y. A. (2021). Determinants of desire for more children among women in Ethiopia. BMC Women’s Health, 21(1), Article 408. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12905-021-01563-3
• Murtin, F. (2013). Long-term determinants of the demographic transition, 1870–2000. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(2), 617–631. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00302
• National Population Commission [Nigeria] & ICF. (2019, October). Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 2018. https://www.dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/FR359/FR359.pdf
• Ndahindwa, V., Kamanzi, C., Semakula, M., Abalikumwe, F., Hedt-Gauthier, B., & Thomson, D. R. (2014). Determinants of fertility in Rwanda in the context of a fertility transition: A secondary analysis of the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey. Reproductive Health, 11, Article 87. https://doi.org/10.1186/1742-4755-11-87
• Odusina, E. K. (2017). Determinants of fertility preference among couples in Nigeria: Implication for fertility control. Gender and Behaviour, 15(1), 8406–8420. https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.10520/EJC-88eb7ab85
• Odusina, E. K., Ayotunde, T., Kunnuji, M., Ononokpono, D. N., Bishwajit, G., & Yaya, S. (2020). Fertility preferences among couples in Nigeria: A cross-sectional study. Reproductive Health, 17(1), Article 92. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12978-020-00940-9
• Olaleye, D. O. (1993, December ). Ideal family size: A comparative study of numerical and non-numerical fertility desires of women in two sub-Saharan African countries (DHS Working Papers WP7). https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/WP7/WP7.pdf
• Oyediran, K. A. (2006). Fertility desires of Yoruba couples of South-Western Nigeria. Journal of Biosocial Science, 38(5), 605–624. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021932004026835
• Oyediran, K. A., & Isiugo-Abanihe, U. C. (2002). Husband-wife communication and couple’s fertility desires among the Yoruba of Nigeria. African Population Studies, 17(2), 61–80. https://www.bioline.org.br/request?ep02010
• Oyefabi, A., Adelekan, B., Nmadu, A. G., & Abdullahi, K. M. (2019). Determinants of desire for child spacing among women attending a family planning clinic in Kaduna, north-western Nigeria. Journal of Community Medicine and Primary Health Care, 31(1), 48–56. https://www.ajol.info/index.php/jcmphc/article/view/185046
• Piotrowski, M., & Tong, Y. (2016). Education and fertility decline in China during transitional times: A cohort approach. Social Science Research, 55, 94–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2015.10.001.
• Population Reference Bureau. (2022, September). World Population Data Sheet 2022. https://www.prb.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/2022-World-Population-Data-Sheet-Booklet.pdf
• Reher, D. S., Sandström, G., Sanz-Gimeno, A., & van Poppel, F. W. A. (2017). Agency in fertility decisions in Western Europe during the demographic transition: A comparative perspective. Demography, 54(1), 3–22. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-016-0536-0
• Renne, E. P. (1996). Perceptions of population policy, development, and family planning programs in northern Nigeria. Studies in Family Planning, 27(3), 127–136. https://doi.org/10.2307/2137918
• Riddell, K. (2016). Islam and the securitisation of population policies: Muslim states and sustainability. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315589954
• Teshale, A. B., Worku, M. G., & Tesema, G. A. (2022). Fertility decision and its associated factors in sub-Saharan Africa: A multilevel multinomial logistic regression analysis. BMC Women’s Health, 22(1), Article 337. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12905-022-01920-w
• United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), Population Division (2022). World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/World-Population-Prospects-2022
• Van Lith, L. M., Yahner, M., & Bakamjian, L. (2013). Women’s growing desire to limit births in sub-Saharan Africa: Meeting the challenge. Global Health, Science and Practice, 1(1), 97–107. https://doi.org/10.9745/GHSP-D-12-00036
• van Poppel, F., Reher, D., Sanz-Gimeno, A., Sanchez-Dominguez, M., & Beekink, E. (2012). Mortality decline and reproductive change during the Dutch demographic transition: Revisiting a traditional debate with new data. Demographic Research, 27(11), 299–338. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2012.27.11
• Wang, Q., & Sun, X. (2016). The role of socio-political and economic factors in fertility decline: A cross-country analysis. World Development, 87, 360–370. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.07.004
• Westoff, C. F., & Bietsch, K. (2015, February). Religion and reproductive behavior in sub-Saharan Africa. DHS Analytical Studies No. 48. ICF International. https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/AS48/AS48.pdf
• Yaya, O. S., & Osanyintupin, O. D. (2018). Determinants of desired and actual number of children and the risk of having more than two children in Ghana and Nigeria (MPRA Paper No. 88824). https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/88824/
• Yaya, S., Bishwajit, G., Uthman, O. A., & Amouzou, A. (2018). Why some women fail to give birth at health facilities: A comparative study between Ethiopia and Nigeria. PLOS ONE, 13(5), Article e0196896. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0196896
• Yeatman, S., Trinitapoli, J., & Garver, S. (2020). The enduring case for fertility desires. Demography, 57(6), 2047–2056. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00921-4
• Yeboah, I., Kwankye, S. O., & Frempong-Ainguah, F. (2021). Consistency of the determinants of achieving fertility desires in Ghana: Insights from 2003, 2008 and 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data sets. Genus, 77(1), Article 27. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-021-00137-3