Factors Influencing Progression to a Larger Family in Mid- and Late-Transitional Fertility Stalls: A Case Study of Bangladesh

Abstract

Bangladesh has experienced stalls in fertility decline in different stages of fertility transition. This study explored the predictors of progression to a larger family in Bangladesh during the mid-transitional fertility stall that occurred in the late 1990s and the late-transitional fertility stall in the early 2010s by analyzing the progression to third and fourth births, and progression to third birth. This study analyzed the 1999/2000 and 2014 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data using descriptive analysis technique, chi-square test, and random-effects Cox hazard model. Results showed that women were significantly slower in having a higher-order birth in both stalls if they noticed family planning messages, attained secondary or higher education, were non-Muslim, did not experience child death, and lived outside of the Chattogram and Sylhet regions. Although progression to a higher-order birth in the late-transitional stall became more homogeneous among different groups, the urban-rural difference in having a higher-order birth that was nonsignificant in the mid-transitional stall became significant in the late-transitional stall. Besides these factors, the effects of religion and region increased substantially in the late-transition stall. The findings highlight a necessity for the government’s attention to family planning programs along with the increasing gaps between urban-rural residences, regions, and religious groups in having higher-order births.