Population Aging Tendencies in Islamic Countries Between 1950-2020: A Geographical Assessment

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Hasan Hekmatnia
Mir Najaf Mousavi
Kamran Jafarpour Ghalehteimouri
Ali Shamsoddini
Ali Bagheri Kashkouli
Alireza Jamshidi




In the contemporary world, population aging and the factors affecting population aging are among the topics of interest of policymakers and planners in any country. Knowledge of this situation will help to regulate and even advance substantial population programs. This study aimed to investigate the trend of the demographic aging index in Islamic countries based on the analysis of survival history. The research method was descriptive-analytical, a type of applied research, and methods of collecting documentary information. The United Nations Population Database (1950 to 2020) was used for data collection. In the present study, 57 countries were grouped and studied in ten geographical areas. The statistical method used is survival history analysis. Data were analyzed using Stata statistical methods and non-parametric methods of estimating the survival function of the Kaplan-Meier method, Nelson-Aalen estimator, and the semi-parametric model of Cox’s proportional risk. Based on the results, it was found that the fertility index has a downward trend in the ten regions of the Islamic world. In contrast, the indicators of old age (with low acceleration) and life expectancy have an increasing trend. The probability of aging has a negative relationship with the total fertility rate and a positive correlation with life expectancy. Estimates of the survival function and cumulative risk for nine of the ten geographical regions (barring the Southern European region) of the Islamic world in 2020 indicate that the probability of aging in these regions is not significantly different. Likewise, the rate of entry into the aging phase does not differ significantly between the same geographical areas. Nevertheless, with the current trend of life expectancy and the reduction of fertility, many of these countries are likely to face the aging crisis in the coming years.


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Mir Najaf Mousavi, Department of Geography, Urmia University

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