Natural Disasters and Birth Rate: Evidence from the 2010 Chilean Earthquake

Main Article Content

Valeria Scapini
Cinthya Vergara

Abstract

A major natural disaster can generate changes in the affected population’s behavior. As Chile is considered one of the countries with the highest seismic activity and has experienced several of the most intense earthquakes on record in the world, this work seeks to identify behavioral changes in the birth rate within an affected population related to a natural disaster in Chile. Based on evidence from the 2010 Chilean earthquake, an empirical study was carried out drawing on birth rate data and social data associated with earthquakes in Chile between 2004 and 2015. Two models were estimated. The first model is a difference-in-differences model for determining the effect of the disaster on the birth rate in the affected area in the post-disaster period. The second model is a triple-difference model that includes the trend of the data over time. The results indicate a positive relationship between the variation in the birth rate and the occurrence of the natural disaster. Studying the relationship between disaster events and fertility contributes to understanding the phenomena of social dynamics. This knowledge could improve public policy decision making for better planning in the face of a natural disaster.

Article Details

How to Cite
Scapini, V., & Vergara, C. (2021). Natural Disasters and Birth Rate: Evidence from the 2010 Chilean Earthquake. Journal of Population and Social Studies [JPSS], 29(-), 274–285. Retrieved from https://so03.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/jpss/article/view/242627
Section
Research Articles
Author Biography

Valeria Scapini, Escuela de Ingeniería Comercial, Universidad de Valparaíso, Chile

Corresponding author

References

• Álvarez-Aranda, R., Chirkova, S., & Romero, J. G. (2020). Growing in the womb: The effect of seismic activity on fetal growth. Economics & Human Biology, 36, 100815. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2019.100815

• Araneda, J. C., Rudnick, H., Mocarquer, S., & Miquel, P. (2010). Lessons from the 2010 Chilean earthquake and its impact on electricity supply. In 2010 International Conference on Power System Technology. IEEE, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1109/POWERCON.2010.5666023

• BBC. (2019, October 21). Chile protests: Is inequality becoming worse? BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50123494

• Banco Central de Chile. (2020). Producto interno bruto por región, precios corrientes, series empalmadas, referencia 2013 (miles de millones de pesos). https://si3.bcentral.cl/Siete/ES/Siete/Cuadro/CAP_CCNN/MN_CCNN76/CCNN2013_PIB_REGIONAL_N/CCNN2013_PIB_REGIONAL_N

• Cociña, M. (2017). Desiguales: Orígenes, cambios y desafíos de la brecha social en Chile. Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo (PNUD). https://www.cl.undp.org/content/chile/es/home/library/poverty/desiguales--origenes--cambios-y-desafios-de-la-brecha-social-en-.html

• Cohan, S., & Cole, S. (2002). Life course transitions and natural disaster: Marriage, birth, and divorce following Hurricane Hugo. Journal of Family Psychology, 16(1), 14–25. https://doi.org/10.1037//0893-3200.16.1.14

• Contreras, M., & Winckler, P. (2013). Pérdidas de vidas, viviendas, infraestructura y embarcaciones por el tsunami del 27 de Febrero de 2010 en la costa central de Chile [Casualties, housing, infrastructure and vessel losses due to the February 27, 2010 Chile tsunami on the central coast of Chile]. Obras y proyectos, 14, 6-19. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-28132013000200001

• DEIS. (2020). Población de Chile, nacidos vivos inscritos y corregidos y tasa de natalidad, por Región y Comuna de Residencia de la Madre. Nacimientos DEIS-MINSAL. https://public.tableau.com/profile/deis4231#!/vizhome/Anuario_Nacimientos_2/Nacimientos

• Finlay, J. E. (2009). Fertility response to natural disasters: The case of three high mortality earthquakes. The World Bank: Policy Research Working Papers. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4883

• Grandón, P., Acuña, S., Briese, C., Chovar, P., Hernández, A., & Orellana, F. (2014). Saqueos y autodefensa. Impacto social en chile post terremoto. [Looting and self-defense. Social impact in Chile post earthquake.] Ajayu Órgano de Difusión Científica del Departamento de Psicología UCBSP, 12(2), 187-206. http://www.scielo.org.bo/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2077-21612014000200002&lng=es&tlng=en.

• Hinga, B. D. R. (2015). Ring of Fire: An encyclopedia of the Pacific Rim’s earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes (Illustrated ed.). ABC-CLIO.

• INE. (2020). Censos de población y vivienda - Cuadros Estadísticos - Censo 2017. Obtenido de Población total por sexo y área urbana-rural, según región y grupos de edad. https://www.ine.cl/estadisticas/sociales/censos-de-poblacion-y-vivienda/poblacion-y-vivienda

• Kagan, Y. Y. (1997). Are earthquakes predictable? Geophysical Journal International, 131(3), 505-525. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x

• Marambio, J. H.. (2015). Flujos de población en el territorio: Perfil y tipología de la migración inter-regional e intercomunal. Panorama CASEN 2015. Gobierno de Chile - Ministerio de Desarrollo Social, Santiago, Chile. http://observatorio.ministeriodesarrollosocial.gob.cl/documentos/Panorama_Casen_2015_Flujos_de_poblacion_en_el_territorio.pdf

• Micheletti, S., & Troncoso, F. L. (2016). Damnificados de la reconstrucción post-terremoto: efectos del modelo en el hábitat rural del Maule. Revista INVI, 31(86), 17-58. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-83582016000100002

• Ministerio de Desarrollo Social. (2010). Encuesta Post-Terremoto [Dataset]. http://observatorio.ministeriodesarrollosocial.gob.cl/bases_postterremoto.php

• Nandi, A., Mazumdar, S., & Behrman, J. R. (2018). The effect of natural disaster on fertility, birth spacing, and child sex ratio: evidence from a major earthquake in India. Journal of Population Economics, 31, 267-293. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-017-0659-7

• Nobles, J., Frankenberg, E., & Thomas, D. (2015). The effects of mortality on fertility: population dynamics after a natural disaster. Demography, 52, 15-38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-014-0362-1

• OECD/Eurostat. (2012). Calculation and aggregation of PPP. In Eurostat-OECD Methodological Manual on Purchasing Power Parities (pp. 233-260). OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264189232-15-en

• Oyarzo, C., Bertoglia, P., Avendaño, R., Bacigalupo, F., Escudero, A., Acurio, J., & Escudero, C. (2012). Adverse perinatal outcomes after the February 27th 2010 Chilean earthquake. The Journal of Maternal-Fetal & Neonatal Medicine, 25(10), 1868–1873. https://doi.org/10.3109/14767058.2012.678437

• Palmeiro-Silva, Y. K., Orellana, P., Venegas, P., Monteiro, L., Varas-Godoy, M., Norwitz, E., Rice, G, Osorio, E., & Illanes, S. E. (2018). Effects of earthquake on perinatal outcomes: A Chilean register-based study. PLOS ONE, 13(2), e0191340. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0191340

• Park, C. B., Han, S. H., & Choe, M. K. (1979). The effect of infant death on subsequent fertility in Korea and the role of family planning. American Journal of Public Health, 69(6), 557-565. https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.69.6.557

• Rodgers, J. L., St. John, C. A., & Coleman, R. (2005). Did fertility go up after the Oklahoma City bombing? An analysis of births in metropolitan counties in Oklahoma, 1990–1999. Demography, 42(4), 675-692. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4147334

• Sanhueza, C., Contreras, D., & Denis, A. (2018). Terremoto y sus efectos sobre el bienestar: un análisis multidimensional. Persona y Sociedad, 26(1), 43-66. https://doi.org/10.11565/pys.v26i1.5

• Scapini, V. (2020). Disaster, infrastructure damage and health. International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering, 10 (2), 219-225. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsse.100208

• Scapini, V., & Zúñiga, E. (2020). Conditions of housing infrastructure before the occurrence of an earthquake. WIT Transactions on Engineering Sciences, 129, 207-213. https://doi.org/10.2495/RISK200181

• Vargas Espejo, D. (2014). El terremoto y tsunami de 2010 en Chile. Análisis socioespacial del impacto y proceso de reconstrucción de la vivienda en la región del Biobío. Facultad de Arquitectura y Urbanismo, Universidad de Chile [Published Thesis]. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/130077

• Wood, H. O., & Neumann, F. (1931). Modified Mercalli intensity scale of 1931. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 21(4), 277-283. https://scits.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj13751/f/277.full_.pdf

• World Bank. (2020). Completeness of birth registration (%) - Chile. The World Bank Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.REG.BRTH.ZS?locations=CL.

• World Bank. (2020). PPP conversion factor, GDP (LCU per international $) - Chile. The World Bank Group. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.PPP?locations=CL