AN ESTIMATION OF LABOR PRODUCTIVITY LOSS CLASSIFIED BY CAUSE OF DEATH AND AGE GROUP

Abstract

This study has two objectives: 1) to measure labor productivity loss from 2004 to 2021 and 2) to estimate labor productivity loss from 2022 to 2031, classified by cause of death and age group. Cause of death here means death from disease, disorder, or injury from events such as accidents, physical harm, etc. This is a macro measure of labor productivity loss, using discrete data and comparing partial factors of production. The results of the study reveal that the cause of death from all forms of malignant neoplasms generates the highest average labor productivity loss of 677.61 million dollars per year and a labor productivity loss rate of 10.68 percent per year. For deaths in the 55–59 age group, the average labor productivity loss is the highest at $329.23 million per year, and the average labor productivity loss rate is 10.13 percent per year. The aforementioned age group is close to retirement age but has significant work experience. In the estimation of labor productivity loss, the model coefficient of the change in trend over time shows low error, except when the death is caused by diseases of the circulatory system, genitourinary system, endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases, diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs, as well as certain disorders involving the immune mechanism. In this case, labor productivity loss is estimated from the average change rate. The estimation results show that labor productivity loss tends to increase in all causes of death and age groups.