The Mekong River Commission’s Water Diplomacy Framework in Managing Transboundary Water Tensions An Empirical Analysis of the Chinese Dam Cascade and the Laotian Xayaburi Dam
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
Transboundary water governance in the Mekong River Basin presents complex challenges for regional cooperation between riparian states as hydropower development and climate change intensify pressures on shared water resources. The Mekong River Commission (MRC) employs water diplomacy as a key framework for managing these transboundary water tensions. Current scholarship debates water diplomacy’s effectiveness, some scholars emphasizing its potential for trust-building and cooperation, while others caution against oversimplification of water disputes in broader political contexts. This article aims to identify and understand how the MRC deploys its water diplomacy framework through two cases: the Chinese dam cascade on the Upper Mekong River and the Laotian Xayaburi Dam on the Lower Mekong Mainstream. Using documentary research and qualitative content analysis of official MRC records, policy reports, and academic literature from 2010-2024, this article reveals that the MRC adapts its water diplomacy framework based on the specific context and relationship with involved parties. With China as a dialogue partner, the MRC developed incremental, technically-focused cooperation centered on data-sharing agreements, while with Laos, a member state, the MRC employed more structured consultation processes. Despite achieving incremental improvements in both cases, the MRC’s effectiveness remains constrained by limited enforcement authority and sovereign priorities.
This article contributes to peace-building and water diplomacy by demonstrating
how power asymmetries between upstream and downstream countries
influence diplomatic approaches and how regional organizations navigate the
tension between national sovereignty and regional cooperation.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
The views, opinions, and pictures expressed in this journal are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and viewpoints of the editor and the editorial board. All rights are reserved by the authors and the Institute of Human Rights and Peace Studies of Mahidol University. No part of this journal may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing from the journal’s editor, or as expressly permitted by law, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organization. Non-commercial use of information in this journal must be properly referenced.
References
Asia Times Online. (2008, August 23). China damned over floods. Probe International. https://journal.probeinternational.org/2008/08/23/china-damned-over-floods/
Bangkok Post. (2019, October 30). Eyes on Xayaburi dam. Bangkok Post. https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1782689/eyes-on-xayaburi-dam
Basist, A., & Williams, C. (2020). Monitoring the quantity of water flowing through the Mekong Basin through natural (unimpeded) conditions. Sustainable Infrastructure Partnership. https://558353b6-da87-4596-a181-b1f20782dd18.filesusr.com/ugd/bae95b_0e0f87104dc8482b99ec91601d853122.pdf?index=true
Biba, S. (2019, August 30). China’s hegemonic choice in the Mekong region. East Asia Forum. https://eastasiaforum.org/2019/08/30/chinas-hegemonic-choice-in-the-mekong-region/
Chuthong, J., Liu, H., Xu, F., Cheng, D., Zhang, W., Leh, M., & Lacombe, G. (2019). Joint research on hydrological impacts of the Lancang hydropower cascade on downstream extreme events: Final report. CGIAR research centers. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/109065
Cook, P. (2022, September 13). Water stress to displace 700 million in Africa by 2030, WMO warns. Geneva Solutions. https://genevasolutions.news/climate-environment/water-stress-to-displace-700-million-in-africa-by-2030-wmo-warns
Cronin, R., & Hamlin, T. (2012). Hard Drivers – The Political Economy of Hydropower Development. In Mekong Turning Point: Shared River for a Shared Future (pp. 21–30). Stimson Center. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep10951.10
Dugan, P. J., Barlow, C., Agostinho, A. A., Baran, E., Cada, G. F., Chen, D., Cowx, I. G., Ferguson, J. W., Jutagate, T., Mallen-Cooper, M., Marmulla, G., Nestler, J., Petrere, M., Welcomme, R. L., & Winemiller, K. O. (2010). Fish migration, dams, and loss of ecosystem services in the Mekong Basin. AMBIO, 39(4), 344–348. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-010-0036-1
Eyler, B. (2020, April 22). Chinese dams are wrecking the Mekong River. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/22/science-shows-chinese-dams-devastating-mekong-river/#cookie_message_anchor
_______. (2024). Mekong Mainstream Dams. Stimson Center. https://www.stimson.org/2020/mekong-mainstream-dams/
Fausett, E., & Volgy, T. J. (2010). Intergovernmental Organizations (IGOs) and Interstate Conflict: Parsing out IGO effects for alternative dimensions of conflict in postcommunist space. International Studies Quarterly, 54(1), 79–101. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2009.00578.x
Fuller, T. (2010, April 2). Countries blame China, not nature, for water shortage. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/02/world/asia/02drought.html
Giovannini, G. (2018). Power and geopolitics along the Mekong: The Laos–Vietnam negotiation on the Xayaburi Dam. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 37(2), 63–93. https://doi.org/10.1177/186810341803700203
Gong, H. (2004). Future of China’s hydropower: Speeding up development and sustainable development. Unhydro2004 Beijing. https://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/sdissues/energy/op/hydro_he_english.pdf
Hensengerth, O. (2015). Where is the power? Transnational networks, authority and the dispute over the Xayaburi Dam on the Lower Mekong Mainstream. Water International, 40(5–6), 911–928. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2015.1088334
Hoang, N. (2020, March 21). Mekong Delta struggles to find freshwater as drought, salt intrusion continue. VnExpress International. https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/mekong-delta struggles-to-find-freshwater-as-drought-salt-intrusion-continue-4071219.html
Ide, T. (2018). The impact of environmental cooperation on peacemaking: Definitions, mechanisms, and empirical evidence. International Studies Review, 21(3), 327–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viy014
International Centre for Environmental Management (ICEM). (2010). Strategic environmental assessment of hydropower on the Mekong mainstream: Summary of the final report. MRC. https://www.icem.com.au/documents/envassessment/mrc_sea_hp/SEA_Final_Report_summary_Oct_2010.pdf
Jacobs, J. W. (1994). Toward sustainability in Lower Mekong River Basin development. Water International, 19(1), 43–51. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508069408686196
Kittikhoun, A., & Staubli, D. M. (2018). Water diplomacy and conflict management in the Mekong: From rivalries to cooperation. Journal of Hydrology, 567, 654–667. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.09.059
Krzymowski, A. (2021). Water diplomacy and its strategic significance for sustainable development goals and global security architecture. Sustainability, 13(24), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132413898
Lancang-Mekong Water Resources Cooperation Center (LMC Water Center). (2021). How to promote Lancang-Mekong River Basin management by strengthening data and information sharing and collaboration. (LMC Water Center). https://unece.org/sites/default/files/2021-02/LMC%20Water_How%20to%20promote%20Lancang-Mekong%20River%20Basin%20Management%20by%20strengthening%20data-sharing%20and%20collaboration_20210203.pdf
Li, Z., He, D., & Feng, Y. (2011). Regional hydropolitics of the transboundary impacts of the Lancang cascade dams. Water International, 36(3), 328–339. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2011.585447
Limpopo Watercourse Commissiob (LIMCOM). (2020). Mekong River. LIMCOM. https://limpopocommission.org/the-basin/governance/transboundary-water-management/examples-of-rbos/mekong-river/
Link, P. M., Scheffran, J., & Ide, T. (2016). Conflict and cooperation in the water‐security nexus: A global comparative analysis of river basins under climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water, 3(4), 495–515. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1151
Lundgren, M. (2015). Conflict management capabilities of peace-brokering international organizations, 1945–2010: A new dataset. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 33(2), 198–223. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894215572757
Macpherson, E., Petach, T., Cuppari, R., Grant, W. E., Wang, H.-H., Wheater, H., Brewer, W. A., Brause, H., Livneh, B., Neupane, K. R., Kagawa-Viviani, A., & Peters, C. N. (2024, July 11). For the future of global water systems we need to pay careful attention to power dynamics and scale mismatches. Global Water Forum. https://www.globalwaterforum.org/2024/07/11/for-the-future-of-global-water-systems-we-need-to-pay-careful-attention-to-power-dynamics-and-scale-mismatches/
McCartan, B., & Gunn, G. (2008). Chinese dams and the Great Mekong floods of 2008. The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, 6(8), 1-6. https://apjjf.org/geoffrey-gunn/2865/article
Mekong River Commission for Sustainable Development (MRC). (1995). 1995 Mekong agreement. MRC. https://www.mrcmekong.org/agreement/
Mekong River Commission Secretariat (MRCS). (2011). Procedures for Notification, Prior Consultation and Agreement (PNPCA) Proposed Xayaburi Dam Project–Mekong River: Prior consultation project review report. MRCS. https://www.riverresourcehub.org/wp-content/uploads/files/attached-files/mrc_technical_review_of_xayaburi_march_2011.pdf
Mengjie. (2018, April 5). Lower Mekong countries’ leaders stress MRC’s cooperation with LMC, other regional mechanisms. XinhuaNet. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-04/05/c_137090575.htm
Minh, N. (2019). Mekong River turns aquamarine due to low flows. VnExpress International. https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/mekong-river-turns-aquamarine-due-to-low-flows-4024744.html
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. (2011, November 18). Joint Statement of the Third Mekong-Japan Summit. "The World and Japan" Database. https://worldjpn.net/documents/texts/JPSEA/20111118.D3E.html
Mirumachi, N. (2020). Informal water diplomacy and power: A case of seeking water security in the Mekong River Basin. Environmental Science & Policy, 114, 86–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.07.021
_______. (2002). China signs data-sharing agreement. Mekong News. https://archive.iwlearn.net/mrcmekong.org/download/mek_news/issue20022_AprJun.pdf
_______. (2008a, August 29). Agreement on provision of hydrological information renewed by China and MRC. MRC. https://archive.iwlearn.net/mrcmekong.org/mrc_news/press08/MRC-China-agreement.htm
_______. (2008b). Regional multi-stakeholder consultation on the MRC hydropower programme consultation proceedings. MRC. https://www.mrcmekong.org/publications/regional-multi-stakeholder-consultation-on-the-mrc-hydropower-programme-consultation-proceedings/
_______. (2010). Minutes of the Thirty-first Meeting of the MRC Joint Committee. MRC. https://archive.iwlearn.org/mrcmekong.org/download/free_download/31st-JC-Minutes-Structured.pdf
_______. (2014). Mekong River Commission Flood Management and Mitigation Programme: Seasonal dry situation report for the Lower Mekong River basin for the dry season 2013/14: (from 11st November 2013 to 26th May 2014). Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Center.https://ffw.mrcmekong.org/weekly_report/2014/Seasonal%20Dry%20Situation%20Report%202013-2014%20(V2_10_01_2015)%20TVNB.pdf
_______. (2016a). Integrated water resources management-based basin development strategy 2016-2020: For the Lower Mekong basin. MRC. https://www.mrcmekong.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Basin-Development-Strategy-2016-2020.pdf
_______. (2016b). Mekong River commission 20 years of cooperation. MRC. https://www.mrcmekong.org/publications/mekong-river-commission-20-years-of-cooperation/
_______. (2016c). Procedures for Notification, Prior Consultation and Agreement (PNPCA). MRC. https://data.opendevelopmentmekong.net/library_record/pnpca
_______. (2016d, November 9). Joint observation and evaluation of the emergency water supplement from China to the Mekong River. MRC. https://www.mrcmekong.org/publications/joint-observation-and-evaluation-of-the-emergency-water-supplement-from-china-to-the-mekong-river/
_______. (2017). Study on sustainable management and development of the Mekong River: progress brief. Office of the Chief Executive Officer. https://www.mrcmekong.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Council-Study-on-Sustainable-Management-and-Development-of-the-Mekong-River-Progress-Brief-October-2017.pdf
_______. (2018a). Mekong Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (MASAP). https://www.mrcmekong.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Mekong-Climate-Change-Adaptation-Strategy-and-Action-Plan-MASAP.pdf
_______. (2018b, December 31). State of the basin report 2018. ReliefWeb. https://reliefweb.int/report/world/state-basin-report-2018
_______. (2019). Memorandum of understanding under the Joint Working Group on Water Resources Cooperation of Lancang-Mekong Cooperation on the provision of hydrological information of the Lancang River throughout the year by China to the other five member countries. MRC. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/mul215424.pdf
_______. (2022). Sustainable hydropower development strategy: A basin-wide strategy for a Changing Mekong River Basin. MRC. https://www.mrcmekong.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Sustainable-Hydropower-Development-Strategy-A-Basin-wide-Strategy-for-a-Changing-Mekong-River-Basin.pdf
_______. (2024a). First Joint Lancang Mekong Survey to the source: Building trust through shared waters. MRC. https://www.mrcmekong.org/media-releases/first-joint-lancang-mekong-survey-to-the-source-building-trust-through-shared-waters/2024/#:~:text=In%202002%2C%20China%20signed%20an%20agreement%20with%20the,predict%20downstream%20water%20levels%2C%20particularly%20during%20flood%20events
_______. (2024b). Basin development strategy 2021-2030 and MRC strategic plan 2021-2025. MRC. https://www.mrcmekong.org/publications/basin-development-strategy-2021-2030-and-mrc-strategic-plan-2021-2025/
_______. (2024c). Climate change and adaptation initiative. MRC. https://www.mrcmekong.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/CCAI.pdf
Reuters. (2010, April 5). China says dams not to blame for low Mekong levels. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/business/environment/china-says-dams-not-to-blame-for-low-mekong-levels-idUSTRE6341A6/
Reuters. (2020, October 22). China commits to share year-round water data with Mekong River Commission. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/business/environment/china-commits-to-share-year-round-water-data-with-mekong-river-commission-idUSKBN277134/
Richardson, M. (2009). Dams in China turn the Mekong into a river of discord: rivers know no borders, but dams do. The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, 7(35), 1-4. https://apjjf.org/michael-richardson/3210/article
Roney, T. (2024). What Are the impacts of dams on the Mekong River? Dialogue Earth. https://dialogue.earth/en/energy/what-are-the-impacts-of-dams-on-the-mekong-river/
Rosslan, L., & Hobbs, C. (2024, September 5). August water levels dropped sharply at Tonle SAP amid dam data discrepancies. CamboJA News. https://cambojanews.com/august-water-levels-dropped-sharply-at-tonle-sap-amid-dam-data-discrepancies/
Sehring, J., Schmeier, S., Ter Horst, R., Offutt, A., & Sharipova, B. (2022). Diving into water diplomacy–exploring the emergence of a concept. Diplomatica, 4(2), 200–221. https://doi.org/10.1163/25891774-bja10082
Selby, J. (2003). Dressing up domination as “cooperation”: The case of Israeli-Palestinian water relations. Review of International Studies, 29(1), 121-138. https://doi.org/10.1017/S026021050300007X
Smith, D., & Winterman, K. (2022). Models and mandates in transboundary waters: Institutional mechanisms in water diplomacy. Water, 14(17), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14172662
Toriyabe, J. (2025, May 12). The Prevention and Resolution of International Conflicts over Transboundary Water Resources in the Mekong River Basin. CiNii Research. https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1050287827472515200
Tran, T. A. (2022, April 30). The Mekong Delta’s transboundary water problems. East Asia Forum. https://eastasiaforum.org/2022/04/30/the-mekong-deltas-transboundary-water-problems/
UN-Water. (2024). Progress on transboundary water cooperation: Mid-term status of SDG indicator 6.5.2, with a special focus on climate change. United Nations and UNESCO. https://doi.org/10.54677/qmqx8780
Williams, J. M. (2020). Is three a crowd? River basin institutions and the governance of the Mekong River. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 37(4), 720–740. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2019.1700779
Wolf, A. T., Yoffe, S. B., & Giordano, M. (2003). International waters: identifying basins at risk. Water Policy, 5(1), 29–60. https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2003.0002
Yeophantong, P. (2014). China’s Lancang dam cascade and transnational activism in the Mekong region. Asian Survey, 54(4), 700–724. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2014.54.4.700
Zhang, H., & Li, M. (2020). China’s water diplomacy in the Mekong: A paradigm shift and the role of Yunnan provincial government. Water International, 45(4), 347–364. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2020.1762369
