A Study of Future Trends in Spatial Change for Innovation Development Social Innovation in Chainat Province


  • Achakorn Wongpreedee Graduate School of Public Administration, National Institute of Development Administration.
  • Tatchalerm Sudhipongpracha College of Interdisciplinary Studies, Thammasat University.


futuristic study, spatial change, social innovation development


The purpose of this research is to study 1) to study and identify factors and trends Major changes that will affect the area in the next 10 years in various dimensions related to as well as reflecting the changes that will occur in the area Both in terms of economy, society, industry, environment, living and way of life. 2) Prepare future trends, spatial changes for social innovation development of Chainat Province in the next 10 years, including setting policies and action plans. innovation development in line with future vision; and 3) to raise awareness among stakeholders on the importance of preparing for future changes. In this research, the researcher used a qualitative research method. and have the tools to create a future picture Starting from capturing signals, threats, and opportunities in Chainat Province, followed by analyzing the roots of social and economic phenomena in Chainat Province, and setting future scenarios in terms of data collection. The researcher collects data from interviews. Workshop and focus group discussion to create a future perspective. After obtaining the data, the researcher analyzed the data by using forward-looking techniques, 4 tools: 1) Horizon Scanning by STEEP technique; 2) Data analysis by STEEP technique. Causal-layered Analysis (CLA), 3) Hypothetical Mapping of Changing Trends in Chai Nat Province Using Morphological Analysis Techniques and 4) Data Analysis Using Future Scenario Building Techniques.

The study found that from data analysis techniques (CLA) found that although Chainat Province had a vision and strategic issues according to the prudent and concise provincial development plan, it still faced difficulties in driving the plan into practice seriously causing the agricultural sector that the province aimed to become an agricultural sector. Organic and safe agriculture are still lower than the target values. In addition, the tourism industry tends to be stable due to the lack of new tourist attractions that can attract tourists to the area. In addition, the number of elderly people who are dependent tends to increase, resulting in limited access to resources, opportunities, and public service infrastructure such as education, public health, etc. Important in development, that is, poverty is viewed as a matter for underprivileged people, the elderly and dependent people. but do not pay attention to economic statistics, viewing it as a “burden” in performing duties when in fact Information is a tool to drive government policies into concrete implementation. In addition, there is a culture that adheres too much to government regulations. regardless of the context of the area create a concept Shrink/Stagnation Mindset.

The results from the analysis of the data analyzed in the first stage using STEEP and CLA techniques revealed that there were 4 patterns of change trends in the area of Chainat Province over the next 10-20 years. Quiet technology and society Model 2 The impact of the epidemic of serious infectious diseases and global warming Model 3 Commercial agriculture (Commercialized Agriculture) and model 4, the use of resources under their full potential (Continued Resource Under-utilization).

According to four patterns of changing trends in Chai Nat province, it was found that the possible future scenarios considered by the researcher were technically The Organizational Scenario Method is as follows: 1) the “Business as Usual” scenario, 2) the “Best Case” scenario, 3) the “Worst Case” scenario, and 4) the “Abnormal.” (Outlier)”

From the results of the studies and policy issues mentioned above. The researcher has synthesized strategic goals and strategies to drive social innovation development in the area. Chai Nat in the form of a "Blueprint" consisting of 2 parts: 1) Strategic goals of driving social innovation development in the area Chai Nat Province in a period of 10-20 years, which consists of 5 goals, namely (1) the yield per rai of major economic crops increases by 2-3 times (2) the value of agricultural products is 50 percent of the provincial gross product (3) average household debt in the agricultural sector decreased by 50 percent; (4) all farmers in Chainat Province have access to and can take advantage of 5G technology; and (5) Chainat Province has the largest agricultural innovation model area in the central region. Bottom 2) The researcher's strategic proposal consists of 3 main parts: Core Strategy, Enabling Strategy, and Supporting Strategy.


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