Success Factors and the Effectiveness of Political Mobilization Patterns: A Case Study of the 2025 Provincial Administrative Organization Chief Executive Election in Surat Thani
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Abstract
This study examines the success factors and effectiveness of political mobilization patterns in the 2025 Provincial Administrative Organization (PAO) chief executive election in Surat Thani Province, Thailand’s largest southern province with diverse economic activities spanning agriculture, fisheries, and tourism, providing an ideal context for investigating electoral mechanisms in Thailand’s decentralizing governance system. Two research questions guide the investigation: (1) What factors influence electoral success in PAO elections? (2) How do different mobilization patterns compare in effectiveness? Using a quantitative survey research methodology, data were collected from 430 eligible voters across 19 districts through multi-stage sampling. Research instruments demonstrated strong validity (IOC = 0.66-1.00) and reliability (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.90-0.94). Data analysis employed descriptive statistics, multiple regression, and one-way ANOVA with Scheffe’s post-hoc test. Results reveal that policy and campaigning factors (M = 4.31, SD = 0.62) were most critical, followed by candidate characteristics (M = 4.23, SD = 0.67). Among mobilization patterns, community leaders and village headmen networks (M = 4.15, SD = 0.68) proved most effective, followed by social media (M = 3.94, SD = 0.73) and economic activities (M = 3.89, SD = 0.76). ANOVA confirmed significant differences across patterns (p < 0.001), with distinct effectiveness hierarchies emerging. Multiple regression demonstrated that all five success factors significantly influenced election outcomes (R² = 0.69, p < 0.001), with policy and campaigning (β = 0.34, p < 0.001) and candidate characteristics (β = 0.30, p < 0.001) showing strongest effects. These findings illuminate dynamics of local political competition in Thailand’s southern region, highlighting the enduring importance of traditional social capital and patronage networks alongside emerging digital communication channels in contemporary Thai local elections.
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